HVAC Shoulder Season Marketing: How to Keep Leads Coming In When the Phones Go Quiet
HVAC shoulder season marketing works by shifting spend away from high-cost emergency keywords and toward maintenance campaigns, email reactivation, and referral programs. Service call volume drops around 30% in shoulder months, but contractors who run tune-up promotions and membership drives can offset that gap - often at a cost per sale under $10.
Key Takeaways
- HVAC online search demand drops 65-75% during shoulder season, but ad costs go up - meaning you pay more for less
- One HVAC contractor sent a $150 email campaign and booked 17 jobs at $285 each, dropping cost per sale to $8.82
- Maintenance plan members generate 2.4x to 3.1x higher lifetime value than one-time customers
- A 5% improvement in booking rate is worth roughly $100,000 in additional annual revenue
HVAC online search demand drops 65 to 75 percent during shoulder season, according to Scorpion’s first-party platform data from contractors they work with directly. And ad costs go up at the same time.
That’s not a slow season. That’s a double punch.
What Actually Happens to HVAC Lead Volume During Shoulder Season?
Scorpion observed a 65 to 75% drop in HVAC-related searches during a single shoulder season window. Service calls decline by roughly 30%, based on ACHR News data cited by Hook Agency’s 2025 HVAC marketing breakdown.
An HVAC owner told Effective Media Solutions, “I wish September didn’t exist.” When they asked why, he said demand dropped to half. His agency pointed out the problem wasn’t the weather - it was the lack of preparation.
That’s not a rare case. Most HVAC companies run at full throttle from April through August and then act surprised when October feels like a ghost town.
Why Does Running the Same Google Ads Strategy Fail in the Shoulder Season?
The average HVAC cost per click sits at $29.03 for 2024, projected to hit $32.77 in 2025, according to WebFX’s 2026 HVAC marketing benchmarks. Location and competition can swing that number anywhere from $18 to $62 per click.
At a 3.10% industry average conversion rate, you’re spending $940 in clicks to generate one lead. During shoulder season, when intent is lower and fewer people are searching, that math gets uglier fast.
If your whole plan is running the same non-branded keywords you run in July, you will bleed budget and wonder why the phones are quiet. Non-branded leads average $149 per lead based on SearchLight Digital’s benchmark built from $14.9 million in ad spend across 816 contractors. Branded leads average $34. That gap matters more in slow months.
What Should You Be Promoting During Shoulder Season?
Tune-ups and maintenance visits. Full stop.
Maintenance visits run $70 to $200 per visit, with annual agreements priced between $150 and $500, according to BuiltOnTenth’s 2025-2026 job value benchmarks. Spend $1,500 on shoulder season ads, book 15 tune-ups at $150 each, and you’ve already cleared your ad spend at $2,250 in immediate revenue - before the upsells, before the service agreement, and before the replacement job that comes when a tech finds a system on its last legs.
The bigger play is what those tune-up customers become long-term. Maintenance plan members are worth 2.4x to 3.1x more over their lifetime than one-time customers, based on 2026 data from Amra and Elma’s top HVAC marketing statistics report. The average HVAC customer lifetime value is $15,340. Convert a tune-up customer into a member, and you’ve just changed the economics of that $150 visit entirely.
Jaime DiDomenico, president of Cool Today, grew his company’s maintenance agreements by over 240% using a straightforward system: showcase value on the website, coach technicians to pitch at the door, send thank-you notes to existing members, and pay CSRs commissions for signups. Memberships now account for 20 to 40 percent of Cool Today’s total revenue.
If your CSRs aren’t trained to convert callers into maintenance members during slow months, you’re leaving a recurring revenue stream on the table. Check out how to train CSRs to book more calls - the same principles apply to selling agreements over the phone.
What’s the Cheapest Way to Get HVAC Jobs During the Slow Season?
Email your past customers.
One HVAC contractor audited by Contractor Marketing Pros - a firm that reviewed 200-plus HVAC companies - sent a simple “winter prep” email to 2,000 past customers for $150 total. The result was 17 service calls averaging $285 each, for a cost per sale of $8.82.
Compare that to $104 to $153 per Google Ads lead and the choice in September is clear. Past customers already know you, already paid you, and don’t need convincing - they need a reason to call right now.
For specifics on what to actually write and send, what emails to send home service customers covers formats that actually get opens and calls.
Don’t forget the jobs you quoted but didn’t close. Jim VanHorn, owner of Home Climates in Pennsylvania, runs shoulder season campaigns specifically targeting unsold estimates to keep them top of mind. He notes that 75% of his ancillary service sales happen a day or two after the original appointment. If you’re not following up, read how to follow up on unsold estimates before your next slow week hits.
Can a Referral Program Actually Replace Lost Shoulder Season Volume?
A Denver HVAC contractor runs a simple referral program: $100 account credit for every successful referral. That program generates 15 to 20 new customers every month, according to Contractor Marketing Pros’ analysis, at near-zero acquisition cost outside the credit itself.
At $104 to $153 per Google Ads lead, 20 new customers would cost $2,080 to $3,060 in ad spend. A referral credit costs you $100 per job - only when the job is booked.
Referral programs work best when you make them easy to share and easy to redeem. A follow-up text after every completed job, with a direct link to claim the credit, removes all the friction. For setting up that kind of automated follow-up, thank-you and follow-up messages after a job walks through the exact workflow.
How Do Shoulder Season Channel Costs Actually Compare?
| Channel | Avg. Cost Per Lead/Sale | Conversion Rate | Best Use in Shoulder Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google Ads - Non-Branded | $149 per lead | 3.10% avg | Reduce or pause |
| Google Ads - Branded | $34 per lead | Higher than avg | Keep running |
| Local Services Ads | Varies | 18-32% close rate | Prioritize - high intent |
| Email - Past Customers | $8.82 per sale | High | Run this every month |
| Referral Program | ~$100 per customer | N/A - invite only | Set up once, runs itself |
| Maintenance Tune-Up Ads | Spend $1,500, book $2,250+ | Depends on offer | Core shoulder season play |
Local Services Ads deserve a special mention. LSA close rates run 18 to 32 percent, compared to the industry average of 3.10% for standard campaigns, according to Amra and Elma’s 2026 industry data. In shoulder season when fewer people are searching, you want your budget on the channel that closes the people who do search.
LSAs also carry lower risk than non-branded PPC because you pay per lead rather than per click. If you’re weighing your paid lead options, Thumbtack vs. Google LSA breaks down how those two channels perform head-to-head for service contractors.
What Happens to Your Team if You Don’t Plan for Shoulder Season?
VanHorn from Home Climates put it straight to his techs: “The part of making sure they’re able to get at least a 40-hour-a-week paycheck in the off season is by making sure we have things for you to do in the off season. And we use these things as marketing tools.”
He trained his technicians to educate homeowners during shoulder season visits - air scrubbers, IAQ products, ancillary installs. One of his guys sells four to five air scrubbers a month, all year long. That’s not luck. That’s training.
This connects directly to your pay structure and retention. If techs go from 40-hour weeks to 25-hour weeks every fall, they start looking for steadier work. According to ServiceTitan’s research cited via Lokal HQ, just a 5% improvement in booking rate can generate $100,000 in additional annual revenue - and maintaining full technician productivity through shoulder season is a big part of how that happens.
If you’re thinking through how to structure tech pay so the slow months don’t drive your best people out the door, technician pay structure options for HVAC and trades is worth reading before your next slow spell hits.
And if you’re noticing that leads are coming in but not converting to booked jobs regardless of season, that’s a different problem entirely - one that usually lives in your follow-up speed and your booking process. Why leads aren’t converting covers the most common failure points we’ve seen across dozens of contractor accounts.
How Should You Spend Your Marketing Budget During Shoulder Season?
ACHR News pegs the right HVAC marketing budget at 8 to 12 percent of revenue, with competitive markets requiring 12 to 15 percent. Shoulder season isn’t the time to cut the budget to zero - it’s the time to shift where it goes.
Pull back on high-cost non-branded search. Double down on email, LSAs, and branded keywords. Launch a tune-up promotion with a specific dollar offer and a deadline two weeks out, then send the referral credit email to every customer from the last 12 months.
The contractors who win shoulder season aren’t the ones who spend the most. They’re the ones who stop spending on channels that don’t work when intent is low, and put that money where past relationships and high-intent searches still convert.
If you’re not sure whether your current website is converting the traffic you do have, why your website visitors aren’t filling out forms gives you a fast diagnosis.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is shoulder season for HVAC contractors?
Shoulder season typically falls in September through early October and again in April through early May - the windows between peak cooling and peak heating demand. According to Effective Media Solutions, demand can drop to half of peak-season levels, particularly in September when summer heat fades but heating systems haven’t been needed yet.
How much do HVAC leads cost during shoulder season?
Google Ads leads average $104 to $153 per lead based on SearchLight Digital’s analysis of $14.9 million in ad spend across 816 contractors in 2026. During shoulder season, competition from other contractors holding spend steady can push costs higher while conversion volume drops, making email and referral channels far cheaper alternatives.
Does email marketing actually work for HVAC companies in the slow season?
Yes - and the numbers are hard to argue with. One HVAC client audited by Contractor Marketing Pros sent a winter prep email to 2,000 past customers for $150 and generated 17 service calls averaging $285 each, producing a cost per sale of $8.82. Past customers already trust you, which is why reactivation emails convert far better than cold traffic.
How do HVAC maintenance agreements help with shoulder season revenue?
Maintenance plan members generate 2.4x to 3.1x more lifetime value than one-time customers, according to 2026 benchmark data from Amra and Elma. Jaime DiDomenico, president of Cool Today, reported that memberships account for 20 to 40 percent of total company revenue after growing their agreement base by over 240%.
What marketing channels should HVAC companies prioritize in the off-season?
Email reactivation campaigns, referral programs, and Local Services Ads tend to deliver the best return during shoulder months. LSAs convert at 18 to 32 percent according to Amra and Elma’s 2026 industry data, and a well-run referral program like the one used by a Denver contractor in Contractor Marketing Pros’ audit can generate 15 to 20 new customers per month at near-zero acquisition cost.
Pull your customer list from the last 12 months right now. Draft a single email with a tune-up offer and a deadline two weeks out. Send it this week. That $8.82 cost-per-sale isn’t a marketing theory - it’s what happens when you stop waiting for the phone to ring and start calling the people who already trust you.
Written by
Pipeline Research Team